Avatar vs The Hurt Locker

It's a common belief that Academy Award ballots are filled-out by the spouses of the members as the members are too busy working to see the films. As most members are men, if the belief is true that means women do most of the voting.

Avatar has grossed $2.47B in theaters so far but has gathered only 16 awards. It's a film many people love enough to see more than once. Despite the alien setting it has a pretty formulaistic plot.

The Hurt Locker has been getting a lot of notice for its director, Kathryn Bigelow, because it's unusual for a woman to direct a picture of its genre. It's picked-up tons (67) of awards already but grossed only $16.1M in theaters. The plot is anything but predictable but is also unrealistic: our military does not operate as shown in the film.

So if we assume that women are going to do most of the voting, which film will bring home the Oscar for Best Picture? Are women going to vote for an appealing film - Avatar - or a war flick with no women in principal roles - The Hurt Locker - due to its director? Or are they going to hang a left and vote for The Blind Side?

If I were to bet, I'd pick Avatar, but I wouldn't bet the farm.